What a very strong El Niño means for Malaysia
What to expect on heat, drought and haze from November 2026 to January 2027, and what it could mean for manufacturing and agriculture or plantation operations.
Status
El Nino Advisory (NOAA/CPC)
Confirmed
June 2026
Expected peak
Nov 2026 to Jan 2027
Likely to last until
Spring 2027 (97% odds)
Ocean Nino Index (ONI): how strong is this event?
This event is still building. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center expects it to cross into very strong territory (2.0°C or higher) between October to December 2026, and put the odds of that at 81% in their July 2026 update, up from 63% just a month earlier.
01Key risks at a glance
NOAA and the US Climate Prediction Center issued an El Nino Advisory in June 2026, when they put the odds of a very strong event (ONI at or above 2.0°C) at around 63%. By their July 9 update, that had risen to 81%, with a peak expected between October to December 2026. This strength has only happened twice before since reliable satellite records began, in 1997 to 98 and 2015 to 16. A July 2026 forecast from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, using 23 of 26 models, also points to a very strong event.
Heat
Elevated
Daytime highs ran about 0.4°C to 0.9°C warmer than normal during past similar events. Sabah's palm oil region saw the biggest increase, close to 0.9°C.
Drought
Elevated
Sabah's rainfall from November to January averaged 37% below normal across past similar events. In 1997 to 98 it dropped by 57%, the worst on record for the state.
Haze
Monitor
Fires in Sumatra and Kalimantan tend to increase during strong El Nino years, raising the risk of haze drifting into Malaysia. Worth watching from September onward.
This outlook currently covers heat, drought and haze. It does not yet cover short, intense rainfall events that can cause flash flooding, even during an overall dry stretch. Past El Nino events have produced both drought and sudden flooding in the same season, sometimes in the same state (see the rainfall table below). We are analysing rainfall extremes separately and will add that here once it is ready.
02Risk by month
Sabah carries the deepest signal of any state we tracked. The shape is worth noting: both risks stay mild in November, then build steadily and do not peak until March, later than the Nov to Jan window this outlook is framed around might suggest. Drought spikes once in January, eases slightly, then peaks again in March. Other states follow different timing, some peak earlier, some barely move at all.
Note that this is a diagnostic view, not a forecast. It is the average of what actually happened, month by month, across five past El Nino events at this same strength (1972, 1982, 1997, 2015, 2023), each compared to what is normal for that particular month. Haze follows the region's general fire season timing rather than state level data, since that is not part of the pipeline yet.
03What happened last time
1997 to 98 (ONI 2.39°C) and 2015 to 16 (ONI 2.75°C) are the only past events this strong with reliable satellite records. The 5-event average is based on every past event that independently reached this same strength: 1972, 1982, 1997, 2015, 2023. Think of it as a realistic expectation based on history, not a guaranteed forecast for 2026 to 27.
How far below normal Sabah's rainfall ran on average across five past very strong El Nino events. It is the deepest drop of any state we tracked, reaching 57% below normal in 1997 to 98 alone.
Rainfall vs Normal (November to January)
| Region | 1997 to 98 | 2015 to 16 | 5-Event Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sabah | -56.6% | -43.3% | -37.1% |
| Sarawak | -20.6% | +0.6% | -7.3% |
| Johor | -14.0% | -26.9% | +0.7% |
| Perak | -17.2% | -13.5% | -9.4% |
| Pulau Pinang | -17.7% | +7.2% | -6.3% |
| Selangor | -6.3% | -5.0% | -2.1% |
Daytime Heat vs Normal (November to January)
| Region | 1997 to 98 | 2015 to 16 | 5-Event Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sabah (palm belt) | +0.88°C | +0.61°C | +0.87°C |
| Sarawak (palm belt) | +0.84°C | +0.48°C | +0.86°C |
| Johor (palm belt) | +0.13°C | +0.74°C | +0.62°C |
| Perak (palm belt) | +0.39°C | +0.85°C | +0.61°C |
| Penang / Kulim (manufacturing) | +0.36°C | +0.79°C | +0.51°C |
| Klang Valley (manufacturing) | +0.41°C | +0.63°C | +0.64°C |
Haze was severe in both past events (September to November 1997, and September to October 2015). Water rationing was confirmed in the Klang Valley in 1998, with localised reports again in 2016. Interestingly, Sarawak and Pulau Pinang both saw slightly more rain than normal in 2015 to 16, even though the overall event was severe. A statewide average can hide a flooded district sitting right next to a dry one.
04What this means for manufacturing
Heat and water riskFactories without full air conditioning face higher heat risk, especially around Penang, Kulim and the Klang Valley. Water supply could also tighten in these areas.
What to watch
- Workers outdoors or in non-air-conditioned areas face higher heat risk, affecting both productivity and safety rules. On average, daytime highs ran +0.51°C warmer than normal in Penang/Kulim, and +0.64°C warmer in the Klang Valley
- Cooling and air conditioning costs are likely to rise
- Factories that use a lot of water, like semiconductor plants, are exposed if reservoir levels drop
When to plan for
- Peak exposure: November 2026 to January 2027
- Water stress risk could continue into early 2027
- This happened before: Klang Valley had water rationing in 1998
05What this means for agriculture and plantations
Drought and delayed yield riskOil palm growing areas in Johor, Sabah, Sarawak and Perak face two separate risks: drought happening now, and a delayed drop in yield later, caused by how the fruit develops.
What to watch
- Rainfall could run well below normal from November to January. On average across past similar events, Sabah saw -37.1% less rain than normal, Perak -9.4%, and Sarawak -7.3%. In 1997 to 98, Sabah alone saw a -56.6% drop
- Drought now can reduce how much fruit the palms produce later. This shows up 6 to 12 months afterward, not right away
- Palm oil prices have moved sharply after past events like this, as supply tightened
When to plan for
- Drought signal now: November 2026 to January 2027
- Yield impact expected: mid to late 2027
- This period covers the cause. The actual drop in harvest comes later
06Where this data comes from
This uses the same data pipeline originally built for hyperlocal flood warning, adapted here to look at seasonal, sector level risk instead.
Want more detail?
This outlook covers Malaysia at state level.
For facility or estate specific risk scores, plus a written plan for your sector, get in touch and we can put one together for you.
Talk to usRainfall and temperature numbers come from our own climate data pipeline. The average columns are based on real past events, not a guaranteed forecast for 2026 to 27.